Sales of combustible tobacco products have dropped by 47% over the course of three years in Scotland, England, and Wales. This data was gathered by analyzing sales data from almost 1,400 convenience stores from March, June, September, and December in 2016 and comparing it with data from the same periods in 2019. The proportion of sales containing a mix of tobacco products and other items also declined, falling from 14% to 9%. This resulted in an average weekly sales drop of 16% between 2016 and 2019. The decline in sales indicates the need for a new business model, as pointed out by Professor Jamie Pearce from the University’s School of GeoSciences.
The Rise of E-Cigarettes
Sales data shows that e-cigarettes have increased in popularity in the same three-year period that combustible tobacco sales have declined. Multiple studies have highlighted this link. However, there is a problem: without vapes, former smokers tend to switch back to cigarettes.
State-Level Vaping Bans and Cigarette Sales
A recent study published in the scientific journal Value in Health found that state-level vaping bans are associated with increases in cigarette sales. Using state-level cigarette sales data, the research team found that when Massachusetts set in place a full vape ban, it witnessed a 7.5% higher-than-expected per capita cigarette sales.
Similarly, local sales data released by Piper Jaffray compared the four weeks ending October 20th, 2019, to the four weeks prior to the ban, and then compared the figures to the sales data of the same period last year. The analysis revealed that as predicted, ex-smokers in Massachusetts who had switched to vaping in order to curb their habit, returned to smoking.
The Positive Effect of the Nicotine Alternatives’ Market
In the UK and New Zealand, vaping products are recommended as smoking cessation tools to smokers who otherwise find it difficult to quit. These recommendations came after UK health authorities put the harm potential of vaping at less than 95% less than smoking, and the risk of developing cancer at 99.5%. And the local smoking rates, with Great Britain at 13.8% and New Zealand at 10.9%, show that this strategy works.
In New Zealand, the rate was achieved after the local government launched a vape awareness campaign in 2020. This led to a reduction in smoking rates (from 13.7 to 10.9%) within one year.
Conclusion
The decline in sales of combustible tobacco products indicates a need for a new business model. As the popularity of e-cigarettes increases, it is important to consider the impact of vaping bans on the use of combustible tobacco products. The success of vaping as a smoking cessation tool in countries such as the UK and New Zealand demonstrates the potential of nicotine alternatives as a means of reducing smoking rates.
FAQs
- What caused the decline in sales of combustible tobacco products?
- The decline in sales is likely due to the rise in popularity of e-cigarettes, which have been recommended as a smoking cessation tool in some countries.
- Why do ex-smokers switch back to cigarettes without vapes?
- Without vapes, ex-smokers may not have a viable alternative to cigarettes, leading them to switch back to smoking.
- How successful have vaping campaigns been in reducing smoking rates?
- In New Zealand, a vape awareness campaign led to a reduction in smoking rates from 13.7% to 10.9% within one year.
- What is the harm potential of vaping compared to smoking?
- UK health authorities have put the harm potential of vaping at less than 95% less than smoking, and the risk of developing cancer at 99.5%.
- What is the impact of vaping bans on cigarette sales?
- A recent study found that state-level vaping bans are associated with increases in cigarette sales, as ex-smokers who had switched to vaping may return to smoking without a viable alternative.